KONDISI TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19: STUDI KASUS DENGAN PENDEKATAN METODE ARIMA
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia dalam masa pandemi Covid-19. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah ARIMA (1,1,0). Hasil peramalan selama 5 tahun ke depan menunjukkan bahwa jumlah pengangguran setiap tahunnya mengalami kenaikan sebesar 0,05% per tahun. Salah satu penyebab kenaikan tingkat pengangguran ini adalah karena pandemi virus Covid-19. Pandemi Covid-19 menyebabkan perekonomian menjadi terhambat, produktivitas menurun, kapasitas perusahan menurun yang menyebabkan menambah tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia.
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Arianto, Bambang. 2021. “Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 Terhadap Perekonomian Dunia.” Jurnal Ekonomi Perjuangan 2 (2). https://doi.org/10.36423/jumper.v2i2.665.
Baltagi, Badi H. 2011. Econometrics Fifth Edition. 5th ed. New York: Springer Texts in Business and Economics. http://www.springer.com/series/10099.
BPS. 2020. “Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2020.” Jakarta. www.bps.go.id.
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Claveria, Oscar. 2019. “Forecasting the Unemployment Rate Using the Degree of Agreement in Consumer Unemployment Expectations.” Journal for Labour Market Research 53 (1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12651-019-0253-4.
Couch, Kenneth A., Robert W. Fairlie, and Huanan Xu. 2020. “Early Evidence of the Impacts of COVID-19 on Minority Unemployments.” Journal of Public Economics 192: 104287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104287.
Dewi, Middia Martanti, Florentz Magdalena, Natalia Pipit D Ariska, Nia Setiyawati, and Waydewin C B Rumboirusi. 2020. “The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Formal Labour in Indonesia.” Populasi 28 (2): 32–53.
Dritsakis, Nikolaos, and Paraskevi Klazoglou. 2018. “Forecasting Unemployment Rates in USA Using Box-Jenkins Methodology.” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 8 (1): 9–20.
European Comission. 2020. European Economy Forecast. Vol. Institutio. https://doi.org/10.2765/788367.
Fakhriyana, Deby, Abdul Hoyyi, and Tatik Widiharih. 2016. “Perbandingan Model ARCH/GARCH Model ARIMA Dan Model Fungsi Transfer (Studi Kasus Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Dan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia Tahun 2013 Sampai 2015).” Jurnal Gaussian 5 (4): 633–40.
Fauziah, Suud Ema. 2020. “The Effect of Economic Growth and Minimum Wages in Unemployment in Bulungan District.” Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi) 4 (3): 123–37.
Gallant, Jessica, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, and Matthew Notowidigdo. 2020. “Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession.” SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3702514.
Gezici, Armagan, and Ozge Ozay. 2020. “An Intersectional Analysis of COVID-19 Unemployment.” Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy 3 (4): 270–81. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41996-020-00075-w.
Goma, Edwardus Iwantri. 2021. “Dampak Covid-19 Terhadap Isu Kependudukan.” Geodika: Jurnal Kajian Ilmu Dan Pendidikan Geografi 5: 33–42. https://doi.org/10.29408/geodika.v5i1.3180.
Greene, William H. 2012. Econometric Analysis. 7th ed. Pearson Education Limited.
Gujarati, Damodar N, and Dawn C. Porter. 2009. Basic Econometrics Fifth Edition. The McGraw-Hill Series.
ILO. 2020. “Covid-19 and the World of Work:Impact and Policy Responses.” International Labour Organization.
Indayani, Siti, and Budi Hartono. 2020. “Analisis Pengangguran Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sebagai Akibat Pandemi Covid-19.” Jurnal Perspektif 18 (2): 201–8.
Mahmudah, Umi. 2017. “Predicting Unemployment Rates in Indonesia.” Economic Journal of Emerging Markets 9 (1): 20–28. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol9.iss1.art3.
Mardiyah, Rahma A, and R Nunung Nurwati. 2020. “Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Peningkatan Angka Pengangguran Di Indonesia.” Harian Spektrum 2: 1–11. https://spektrumonline.com/2020/11/11/dampak-pandemi-covid-19-multidimensi/.
Milani, Fabio. 2021. “COVID-19 Outbreak, Social Response, and Early Economic Effects: A Global VAR Analysis of Cross-Country Interdependencies. Journal of Population Economics [Revista En Internet] 2020 [Acceso 09 de Noviembre de 2020]; 34(1): 223-252.,” 223–52. https://www.scielo.br/pdf/csc/v25s1/en_1413-8123-csc-25-s1-2423.pdf.
Munarsih, Ensiwi. 2017. “Peramalan Jumlah Pengangguran Di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan Dengan Metode Autoregressive Integreted Moving Average (ARIMA).” Jurnal Penelitian Sains 19 (1): 168439.
Ngadi, Ngadi, Ruth Meliana, and Yanti Astrelina Purba. 2020. “Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap PHK Dan Pendapatan Pekerja Di Indonesia.” Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia 2902: 43. https://doi.org/10.14203/jki.v0i0.576.
Nikolaos, Dritsakis, Athianos Stergios, Stylianou Tasos, and Samaras Ioannis. 2016. “Forecasting Unemployment Rates in Greece.” International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research 4531: 43–55.
Niomy, Thabani, and Solomon Prince Nathaniel. 2019. “Modeling Rates of Inflation in Nigeria : An Application of ARMA , ARIMA and GARCH Models.” Munich Personal RePEc Archive, no. 91351: 1–29.
Ployhart, Robert E., William J. Shepherd, and Sam D. Strizver. 2021. “The COVID-19 Pandemic and New Hire Engagement: Relationships with Unemployment Rates, State Restrictions, and Organizational Tenure.” Journal of Applied Psychology 106 (4): 518–29. https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000917.
Posel, Dorrit, Adeola Oyenubi, and Umakrishnan Kollamparambil. 2021. “Job Loss and Mental Health during the COVID- 19 Lockdown: Evidence from South Africa.” PLoS ONE 16 (3 March): 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249352.
Sulaiman, Agus, and Asep Juarna. 2021. “Peramalan Tingkat Pengangguran Di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Time Series Dengan Model Arima Dan Holt-Winters.” Jurnal Ilmiah Informatika Komputer 26 (1): 13–28. https://doi.org/10.35760/ik.2021.v26i1.3512.
Syahrial. 2020. “Dampak Covid-19 Terhadap Tenaga Kerja Di Indonesia.” Ners 4 (23): 21–29.
Todaro, Michael P., and Stephen C. Smith. 2015. Economic Development (12th Edition).
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2018. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, Fifth Edition. South-Western. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351140768-8.
Zulkarnaen, W., et al. (2020). Comparative Study of Tax Policy Related to COVID-19 in ASEAN Countries. International Journal of TEST Engineering & Management. 83(2),6519-6528. https://testmagzine.biz/index.php/testmagzine/article/view/8548.
Published
2021-08-10
How to Cite
Adhitya, D., Maesyaroh, W. U., Tanjung, I. R., & Remayasari, M. (2021). KONDISI TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19: STUDI KASUS DENGAN PENDEKATAN METODE ARIMA. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 5(2), 1665-1678. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v5i2.1367
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