HIERARKI JALUR TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA : BUKTI DARI PENDEKATAN VECM
Abstract
Efektivitas kebijakan moneter dalam mengendalikan inflasi bergantung pada jalur transmisi yang menghubungkan instrumen kebijakan dengan pembentukan harga, namun literatur Indonesia belum menyepakati jalur mana yang paling menentukan dan cenderung menguji setiap variabel secara terpisah tanpa menilai kekuatan relatif antarjalur. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi hierarki transmisi kebijakan moneter terhadap inflasi di Indonesia selama 2000–2023 dengan menempatkan jalur suku bunga (BI Rate), jalur nilai tukar, dan jalur likuiditas (M2) di dalam satu sistem yang terintegrasi. Data tahunan dianalisis menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model yang dipadukan dengan uji kausalitas Granger dan forecast error variance decomposition, sehingga kekuatan relatif setiap jalur dapat dibandingkan secara langsung, bukan sekadar diuji signifikansinya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa transmisi inflasi bersifat asimetris antarjalur. Nilai tukar merupakan jalur yang paling menentukan, sedangkan BI Rate tidak menunjukkan pengaruh langsung yang signifikan terhadap inflasi meskipun tetap berperan dalam dinamika penyesuaian jangka panjang. Jumlah uang beredar menunjukkan pengaruh terhadap inflasi, tetapi perannya bekerja pada horizon yang lebih panjang melalui dinamika sistem yang lebih luas. Kontribusi utama penelitian terletak pada penyusunan hierarki transmisi secara empiris melalui kerangka analitis yang mengintegrasikan tiga prosedur estimasi, bukan pada klaim dominansi satu variabel. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa pengendalian inflasi di Indonesia sulit ditopang hanya oleh penyesuaian suku bunga dan menuntut perhatian yang lebih besar terhadap stabilisasi nilai tukar serta pemantauan likuiditas.
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Published
2026-08-30
How to Cite
Chang, N. (2026). HIERARKI JALUR TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA : BUKTI DARI PENDEKATAN VECM. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 10(2), 2669-2693. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v10i2.7787
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