PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, RETURN ON ASSET (ROA), DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO (DER) DAN UKURAN PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM FMCG NON-LQ45
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, interest rates, Return on Asset (ROA), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and firm size on stock returns of non-LQ45 Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period 2019–2023. This research uses a quantitative approach with secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bank Indonesia, official company websites, and Yahoo Finance. The sampling technique used in this study was purposive sampling based on specific criteria, resulting in non-LQ45 FMCG companies as the research sample.
The analysis method used in this research is panel data regression with the assistance of EViews 13 software. Model selection was conducted using the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Test, which indicated that the Common Effect Model (CEM) was the most appropriate model for this study. In addition, classical assumption tests consisting of multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity tests were conducted to ensure the feasibility of the regression model.
The results of this study indicate that partially, inflation, interest rates, Return on Asset (ROA), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and firm size do not have a significant effect on stock returns of non-LQ45 FMCG companies during the 2019–2023 period. Simultaneously, all independent variables also do not have a significant effect on stock returns. The coefficient of determination (R²) value of 0.088102 indicates that the independent variables in this study are only able to explain 8.81% of stock returns, while the remaining percentage is influenced by other variables outside the research model
References
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Suharyanto, & Zaki, A. (2021). The effect of inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate on stock returns in food & beverages companies. Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, 19(3), 616–622. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jam.2021.019.03.14
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Yulia, I. A. (2021). Pengaruh Return On Asset, Debt To Equity Ratio Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Property Dan Real Estate yang Terdaftar di BEI Tahun 2017-2019. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan, 9(3), 475–482. https://doi.org/10.37641/jimkes.v9i3.791
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Ananti, F. D., Nurlaela, S., & Masitoh, E. (2024). Earnings per share, Return On Equity, Inflation, and Interest Rates on Stock Price. Jurnal RAK (Riset Akuntansi Keuangan), 9(1), 1–14.
https://doi.org/10.31002/rak.v9i1.1256
Bui, T. N., Nguyen, X. H., & Pham, K. T. (2023). The Effect of Capital Structure on Firm Value: A Study of Companies Listed on the Vietnamese Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(3), 100. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11030100
Bank Indonesia. (2024). BI rate. Diakses 20 Mei 2026 dari https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/indikator/bi-rate.aspx
Bank Indonesia. (2024). Target inflasi. Diakses 20 Mei 2026 dari https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/indikator/target-inflasi.aspx
Bursa Efek Indonesia. (2024). Laporan keuangan perusahaan tercatat. Diakses 20 Mei 2026 dari
https://www.idx.co.id/id/perusahaan-tercatat/laporan-keuangan-dan-tahunan
Damayanti, R., & Sucipto, A. (2022). The Effect of Profitability, Liquidity, and Leverage on Firm Value with Dividend Policy as Intervening Variable (Case Study on Finance Sector in Indonesian Stock Exchange 2016-2020 Period). International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research (IJEBAR), 6(2), 1214–1223.
https://doi.org/10.29040/ijebar.v6i2.5363
Dewi, L. G. S., Merawati, L. K., & Tandio, D. R. (2023). How inflation could moderate the effect of financial ratio on stock return. RATIO: Reviu Akuntansi Kontemporer Indonesia, 4(1), 12–24. https://doi.org/10.30595/ratio.v4i1.15624
Dłotko, P., Qiu, W., & Rudkin, S. T. (2024). Financial ratios and stock returns reappraised through a topological data analysis lens. The European Journal of Finance, 30(1), 53–77.
https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2021.2009892
Egbunike, C. F., & Okerekeoti, C. U. (2018). Macroeconomic factors, firm characteristics and financial performance: A study of selected quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 3(2), 142–168.
https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-09-2018-0029
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Chicago: The Journal of Finance.
Fauzan, W. R., & Witono, B. (2026). Pengaruh Return on Asset, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio dan Ukuran Perusahaan terhadap Return Saham. Paradoks: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 9(3), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.57178/paradoks.v9i3.2432
Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest: As Determined by Impatience to Spend Income and Opportunity to Invest It. New York: Macmillan.
Gitman, L. J., & Zutter, C. J. (2021). Principles of Managerial Finance (16th ed.). Pearson Education.
Ifdaniyah, E., & Nurhayati. (2023). Analisis pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga, DER, ROE, ROA dan EPS terhadap return saham pada perusahaan asuransi yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) tahun 2019–2021. Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 3(2), 3269–3278.
https://doi.org/10.25105/jet.v3i2.17176
Januardin, Wulandari, S., Simatupang, I., Meliana, I. A., & Alfarisi, M. (2020). Pengaruh DER, NPM, dan PER terhadap Return Saham pada Perusahaan Sektor Property and Real Estate di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Owner: Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi, 4(2), 423.
https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v4i2.251
Jatmika, D. M., & Kartini. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Current Ratio, Debt To Equity Ratio, dan Total Asset Turnover terhadap Pertumbuhan Laba pada Sektor Perbankan yang Terdaftar pada Indeks Saham LQ45. Selekta Manajemen: Jurnal Mahasiswa Bisnis & Manajemen, 3(2), 17–26. Retrieved from https://journal.uii.ac.id/selma/article/view/38564
Jessie, J., & Tannia. (2024). The Effect of Liquidity, Activity, Profitability, and Leverage on The Financial Distress of Properties and Real Estate Companies in 2019–2022. Dinasti International Journal of Management Science (DIJMS), 5(3), 420–429. https://doi.org/10.31933/dijms.v5i3.2159
Kusumaningtyas, N., Widagdo, B., & Nurjannah, D. (2021). The effect of interest rate, inflation and exchange value on stock returns with profitability as intervening variables. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan, 1(2), 97–108.
https://doi.org/10.22219/jamanika.v1i2.16773
Lee, A., & Yulfiswandi. (2024). The influence of profitability ratios, DER, PBV, and COVID-19 on stock returns. Jurnal Keuangan dan Bisnis, 22(1), 32–42. https://doi.org/10.32524/jkb.v22i1.1040
Ligocká, M., & Stavárek, D. (2019). The relationship between financial ratios and the stock prices of selected European food companies listed on stock exchanges. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 67(1), 299–307.
Lutfi, M., & Endri. (2024). Determinants of stock returns: The moderating role of company size (Empirical study of property and real estate companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2019–2023). Neraca Keuangan: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 19(2), 240–251. https://doi.org/10.32832/neraca
Maryanti, E., Nabila, A. M., Hermawan, S., & Rahayu, R. A. (2026). Firm Size as a Moderator in the Relationship Between Leverage, Cash Flow, Profitability, and Cash Holding: Evidence from Indonesia’s Food and Beverage Sector. Owner: Riset & Jurnal Akuntansi, 10(1), 234. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v10i1.2864
Meilaniwati, H., & Tannia. (2021). Analisis pengaruh penanaman modal asing (PMA), penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN), trade openness (TO) dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di ASEAN-5 tahun 2009–2018. Business Management Journal, 17(1), 89–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.30813/bmj
Mishkin, F. S. (2015). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (11th Global ed.). Pearson Education.
Mumtaz, R. A., & Irawati, Z. (2025). Pengaruh profitabilitas likuiditas dan leverage terhadap return saham perusahaan industri manufaktur sub makanan dan minuman yang terdafar dalam BEI 2021-2023. Paradoks: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 1047–1058.
https://doi.org/10.57178/paradoks.v8i2.1254
Nurqolbiyah, L., & Anjarwati, S. (2025). Studi Empiris: Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Makanan dan Minuman di BEI Periode 2021–2023. Economics Professional in Action (E-Profit), 7(2), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.37278/eprofit.v7i2.1263
Oktavira, R., & Mudjijah, S. (2023). Pengaruh Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Asset Turnover, dan Firm Size terhadap Profitabilitas (Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Tekstil dan Garmen yang Terdaftar pada BEI Periode 2015-2020). Oikos: Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Ilmu Ekonomi, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.23969/oikos.v7i1.6142
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2023). Laporan tahunan pasar modal. Diakses 20 Mei 2026 dari
https://www.ojk.go.id/id/Statistik/Pasar-Modal/Laporan-Tahunan/Default.aspx
Phang, M., Tannia, Siratan, E. D., Idroes, F. N., & Setiadi, H. (2026). Financial Knowledge, Financial Attitudes and Personality as Key Determinants of Financial Management Behavior Among Young Adults. Journal of Accounting and Finance Management (JAFM), 6(6), 3443–3453. https://doi.org/10.38035/jafm.v6i6
Risyona, V., & Tannia. (2025). Pengaruh corporate social responsibility terhadap kinerja keuangan perusahaan di sektor energi dengan risiko sebagai mediator. Business Management Journal, 21(1), 33–50. https://doi.org/10.30813/bmj.v21i1.8129
Robert, A., Edwin, E., & Djaja, K. U. (2025). Assessing ESG and financial metrics on firm valuation in non-cyclical IDX companies 2020–2024. Business Management Journal, 21(2), 203–221. https://doi.org/10.30813/bmj.v21i2.8910
Ross, S. A. (1977). The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing. New York: Journal of Economic Theory.
Sundoro, H. S., Putlia, G., & Lie, J. V. (2024). Analisis Determinan Kinerja Pasar Modal (IDX30) di Indonesia. AKURASI: Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 6(2), 103–116. https://doi.org/10.36407/akurasi.v6i2.1124
Sudarmanto, E., Saraswati, A. M., Suryaningsih, M., Yaumi, S., Junaidi, A., Sugihyanto, T., Nuha, S. U., Esha, D., Khikmah, S. N., Hanif, A., Rismawati, Rusli, A., & Yahawi, S. H. (2024). Analisis laporan keuangan. Tangerang: Minhaj Pustaka.
Sugiyono. (2023). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: Alfabeta.
Suhadak, Kurniaty, Handayani, S. R., & Rahayu, S. M. (2019). Stock return and financial performance as moderation variable in influence of good corporate governance towards corporate value. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 4(1), 18–34. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-07-2018-0021
Suharyanto, & Zaki, A. (2021). The effect of inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate on stock returns in food & beverages companies. Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, 19(3), 616–622. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jam.2021.019.03.14
Yulanda, S. A., Suhardi, S., & Napisah, S. (2025). The Effect of Debt to Equity Ratio, Return on Equity and Earnings Per Share on Financial Profitability in the Property Sector Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Economic: Journal Economic and Business, 4(2), 81–88. https://doi.org/10.56495/ejeb.v4i2.968
Yulia, I. A. (2021). Pengaruh Return On Asset, Debt To Equity Ratio Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Property Dan Real Estate yang Terdaftar di BEI Tahun 2017-2019. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan, 9(3), 475–482. https://doi.org/10.37641/jimkes.v9i3.791
Yahoo Finance. (2024). Historical stock prices. Diakses dari 20 Mei 2026. Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News
Zulkarnaen, W., Fitriani, I., & Yuningsih, N. (2020). Pengembangan Supply Chain Management Dalam Pengelolaan Distribusi Logistik Pemilu Yang Lebih Tepat Jenis, Tepat Jumlah Dan Tepat Waktu Berbasis Human Resources Competency Development Di KPU Jawa Barat. Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi), 4(2), 222-243. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.vol4.iss2.pp222-243.
Published
2026-08-25
How to Cite
Kennedy, K., & Budiyanto, V. (2026). PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, RETURN ON ASSET (ROA), DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO (DER) DAN UKURAN PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM FMCG NON-LQ45. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 10(2), 2010-2028. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v10i2.7710
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