PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP IHSG PADA PERIODE PEMULIHAN EKONOMI PASCA COVID-19 TAHUN 2020-2024
Abstract
The post-pandemic dynamics of the IHSG reflect the capital market’s vulnerability to shifts in macroeconomic indicators, making it necessary to analyze the factors influencing them. This quantitative study evaluates the impact of exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, GDP, and FDI on the IHSG in Indonesia for the 2020-2024 period. It utilizes secondary data in the form of quarterly time series obtained from the Bank of Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Investing.com, and Trading Economics. Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression with the EViews 13 software, along with a series of assumption tests and statistical analyses. The results of the partial tests confirm that exchange rates, interest rates, GDP, and FDI have a significant impact, while inflation has a non-significant impact. Collectively, all independent variables account for 77.1% of the variation in the IHSG. This finding underscores the importance of macroeconomic stability as the foundation for investment decisions and the formulation of capital market policies.
References
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Prawoto, N., & Putra, B. A. (2020). The Factors Affecting the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) of Indonesia Stock Exchange. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 21(1). https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5032
Prayoga, D., Sihombing, J., Andini, P., & Safuridar. (2026). Pengaruh Suku Bunga BI , Kredit Perbankan, Dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. 3(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/: https://doi.org/10.61722/jrme.v3i1.7503
Puspita, M. D., & Shabrina, D. (2025). Belum Genap Sebulan, Trading Halt IHSG Terjadi Dua Kali di Awal 2025. TEMPO. TEMPO.CO
Rahayu, P. S. P. S., & Diatmika, I. P. G. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, Dan Dow Jones Industrial Average Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Periode Januari 2019-Agustus 2022). JIMAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi) Undiksha, 14(03), 1104–1111. https://doi.org/10.23887/jimat.v14i03.61155
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Ratnaningtyas. Heny. (2020). Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment, Inflasi, BI Rate dan Nilai Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Harga Saham Gabungan Indeks di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Tahun 2010-2018. Mabiska Jurnal, 5(1), 1–15.
Rindika, S. M. (2024). The Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on the Movement of Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) During COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia. Berkala Akuntansi Dan Keuangan Indonesia, 9(2), 220–240. https://doi.org/10.20473/baki.v9i2.58835
Robiyanto, R., Santoso, M. A., Atahau, A. D. R., & Harijono, H. (2019). The Indonesia stock exchange and its dynamics: An analysis of the effect of macroeconomic variables. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 15(4), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2019.15-4.5
Saputri, N. F., & Irawati, Z. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh BI Rate, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Indeks Dow Jones, Indeks Nikkei 225 Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ekuilnomi, 5(2), 361–373. https://doi.org/10.36985/xn60as56
Silalahi, E., & Sihombing, R. (2021). Pengaruh Faktor Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2020. 7(2), 139–152. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.54367/jrak.v7i2.1361
Suhadak, & Suciany, A. D. (2020). Brief Technical Note: The Influence of Exchange Rates on Inflation, Interest Rates and the Composite Stock Price Index: Indonesia 2015 - 2018. Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal, 14(1 Special Issue), 105–120. https://doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v14i1.11
Sukmawati, F. N., & Haryono, N. A. (2021). Cointegration of Macroeconomics Variables and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index on the Composite Stock Price Index In 2015-2019. Journal of Business Management Review, 2(3), 178–191. https://doi.org/10.47153/jbmr23.1102021
Toha, M., Manaku, A. C., & Zamroni, M. A. (2020). Perkembangan dan Problematika Pasar Modal Syariah di Indonesia. Al-Tsaman : Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan Islam, 2(1), 135–144.
Wardana, A. K., & Masdjojo, G. N. (2024). The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates on The Jakarta Composite Index. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis, 11(1), 151–163. https://doi.org/10.33096/jmb.v11i1.704
Waryati, S. Y., & Solaiman, A. (2022). Pengaruh Lingkungan Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Coopetition : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 13(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32670/coopetition.v13i2.1417
Alwan, K., Asmirantho, E., & Wahyudiono, B. (2025). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs USD/IDR, Suku Bunga, Pertumbuhan PDB, dan Minyak Dunia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2019-2023. NAMARA: Jurnal Manajemen Pratama, 2(2).
Anggriana, R. S., & Paramita, R. A. S. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh BI Rate, Kurs, Inflasi, Harga Minyak, dan Harga Emas DUnia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2016-2019. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 8(3), 1085–1098.
Asmara, I Putu Wahyu Putra, Suarajaya, A. A. G. (2018). Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. 7(3), 1397–1425. https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2018.v7.i03.p010
Chandrawinata, V., & Handoyo, S. E. (2022). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Indeks Dow Jones, dan Indeks Hang Seng terhadap Pergerakan IHSG di BEI. Jurnal Manajerial Dan Kewirausahaan, 4(3), 637–646. https://doi.org/10.24912/jmk.v4i3.19701
Darmawan, S., & Haq, M. S. S. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Makroekonomi, Indeks Saham Global, Harga Emas Dunia dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). 15(2), 95–107. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.26623/jreb.v15i2.4381
Dewi, I. P. (2020). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 17(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.21831/jim.v17i1.34772
Endri, E., Abidin, Z., Simanjuntak, T. P., & Nurhayati, I. (2020). Indonesian Stock Market Volatility: GARCH Model. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 16(2), 7–17. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2020.16-2.1
Fadhil, A. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Makroekonomi, Komoditas Dunia, dan Indeks Dunia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada Periode 2014-2019. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 9(2019), 295–310. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v9n1.p295-310
Fauzi, A., & Wijoyo, A. (2025). The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth on The Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Sciences and Arts, 4(3), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.47709/ijmdsa.v4i3.6326
Fujiono, F., & Nugroho, R. H. (2023). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah, 5(2), 745–761. https://doi.org/10.47467/alkharaj.v5i2.1311
Lesmana, A. S., Wiharno, H., Maulana, Y., Supriatna, O., & Rahmantya, Y. E. K. (2024). Prediktor Kinerja IHSG Dengan Pendekatan Error Correction Model. Equilibrium: Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Dan Ekonomi, 21(01), 113–124. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.25134/equi.v21i01.7778
Manap, A., Sasmiyati, R. Y., Edy, N., & Mustangin. (2023). Pengaruh Bank Indonesia Rates dan Federal Fund Rates terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Al-Buhuts e-Journal, 19(1), 143–161. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.30603/ab.v19i1.3399
Murtiningrum, W., & Caesaria, S. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, SBI, PDB dan JUB Terhadap IHSG. Prosiding Seminar Nasional, 4, 260–273.
Nabiilah, I. A., Hartono, U., & Haryono, N. A. (2024). Analisis Kointegrasi Indeks Saham Filipina PSEI, Indek Saham Malaysia KLCI, Indeks Saham AS DJIA dan Variabel Makroekonomi dengan IHSG. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 8(1), 528–557. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v8i1.3740
Nasution, N. K., Soemitra, A., & Batubara, M. (2023). Analysis of the Influence of GDP, Exchange Rate, Gold Price, BI Rate, and IHSG on JII Islamic Investment Perspective. 6(3), 1979–2007. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31538/iijse.v6i3.3923
Pramesthi, A. A., Hutajulu, D. L., Putri, N. Z., & Kartiasih, F. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Harga Minyak Mentah dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis, Manajemen Dan Akuntansi (JEBMA), 4(1), 257–269. https://doi.org/10.47709/jebma.v4i1.3451
Pratiwi, A. C., Rusgianto, S., & Wardhana, A. K. (2022). Application of Vector Error Correction Model on Macroeconomic Variables toward Changes in the Composite Stock Price Index. Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation, 2(2), 219–229. https://doi.org/10.35877/454ri.daengku883
Prawoto, N., & Putra, B. A. (2020). The Factors Affecting the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) of Indonesia Stock Exchange. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 21(1). https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5032
Prayoga, D., Sihombing, J., Andini, P., & Safuridar. (2026). Pengaruh Suku Bunga BI , Kredit Perbankan, Dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. 3(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/: https://doi.org/10.61722/jrme.v3i1.7503
Puspita, M. D., & Shabrina, D. (2025). Belum Genap Sebulan, Trading Halt IHSG Terjadi Dua Kali di Awal 2025. TEMPO. TEMPO.CO
Rahayu, P. S. P. S., & Diatmika, I. P. G. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, Dan Dow Jones Industrial Average Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Periode Januari 2019-Agustus 2022). JIMAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi) Undiksha, 14(03), 1104–1111. https://doi.org/10.23887/jimat.v14i03.61155
Ramadhani, Y. C., Kartiko, A., & Mayasari, E. (2024). The Impact of Inflation, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Money Supply on IHSG. Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE), 7(3), 8043–8062. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31538/iijse.v7i3.6223
Ratnaningtyas. Heny. (2020). Pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment, Inflasi, BI Rate dan Nilai Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Harga Saham Gabungan Indeks di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Tahun 2010-2018. Mabiska Jurnal, 5(1), 1–15.
Rindika, S. M. (2024). The Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on the Movement of Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) During COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia. Berkala Akuntansi Dan Keuangan Indonesia, 9(2), 220–240. https://doi.org/10.20473/baki.v9i2.58835
Robiyanto, R., Santoso, M. A., Atahau, A. D. R., & Harijono, H. (2019). The Indonesia stock exchange and its dynamics: An analysis of the effect of macroeconomic variables. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 15(4), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2019.15-4.5
Saputri, N. F., & Irawati, Z. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh BI Rate, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Indeks Dow Jones, Indeks Nikkei 225 Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ekuilnomi, 5(2), 361–373. https://doi.org/10.36985/xn60as56
Silalahi, E., & Sihombing, R. (2021). Pengaruh Faktor Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2020. 7(2), 139–152. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.54367/jrak.v7i2.1361
Suhadak, & Suciany, A. D. (2020). Brief Technical Note: The Influence of Exchange Rates on Inflation, Interest Rates and the Composite Stock Price Index: Indonesia 2015 - 2018. Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal, 14(1 Special Issue), 105–120. https://doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v14i1.11
Sukmawati, F. N., & Haryono, N. A. (2021). Cointegration of Macroeconomics Variables and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index on the Composite Stock Price Index In 2015-2019. Journal of Business Management Review, 2(3), 178–191. https://doi.org/10.47153/jbmr23.1102021
Toha, M., Manaku, A. C., & Zamroni, M. A. (2020). Perkembangan dan Problematika Pasar Modal Syariah di Indonesia. Al-Tsaman : Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan Islam, 2(1), 135–144.
Wardana, A. K., & Masdjojo, G. N. (2024). The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates on The Jakarta Composite Index. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis, 11(1), 151–163. https://doi.org/10.33096/jmb.v11i1.704
Waryati, S. Y., & Solaiman, A. (2022). Pengaruh Lingkungan Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Coopetition : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 13(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32670/coopetition.v13i2.1417
Published
2026-08-10
How to Cite
Mawarni, N., Adnan, I. G., & Listiyani, F. (2026). PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP IHSG PADA PERIODE PEMULIHAN EKONOMI PASCA COVID-19 TAHUN 2020-2024. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 10(2), 1434-1454. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v10i2.7633
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