ANALISIS ASET SAFE-HAVEN UNTUK PASAR SAHAM DI INDONESIA : STUDI PADA EMAS DAN BITCOIN
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji kemampuan logam mulia emas dan cryptocurrency bitcoin untuk berperan sebagai aset safe haven bagi pasar saham di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Dinamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) untuk menguji hubungan antara emas dan bitcoin terhadap pasar saham. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder, yang terdiri dari 1.343 observasi harian dari harga penutupan saham (IHSG), emas dan juga bitcoin. Hasil dari analisis data menunjukan bahwa koefisien korelasi emas dan saham bernilai negatif pada kuantil 10% dan bitcoin menunjukan koefisien koreasi yang bernilai negatif pada kuantil 5%, sedangkan pada kuantil lainnya koefisien korelasi bernilai positif untuk kedua aset tersebut. Hasil ini menunjukan jika emas dan bitcoin hanya berperan sebagai sebagai aset safe haven bagi saham pada kondisi pasar tertentu saja. Selain itu, hasil analisis juga menunjukan bahwa, ketika terjadinya volatilitas pasar ekstrim seperti pandemi COVID-19, emas dan bitcoin tidak dapat berperan sebagai aset safe haven bagi pasar saham.
References
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Kaczmarek, T., Będowska-Sójka, B., Grobelny, P., & Perez, K. (2022). False Safe Haven Assets: Evidence From the Target Volatility Strategy Based on Recurrent Neural Network. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101610
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Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974
Mokni, K., Youssef, M., & Ajmi, A. N. (2022). COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty: The first test on the hedging and safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101573
Ortmann, R., Pelster, M., & Wengerek, S. T. (2020). COVID-19 and investor behavior. Finance Research Letters, 37, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101717
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Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Demir, E. (2020). Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe. Finance Research Letters, 35, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101597
Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528
Zhu, X., Niu, Z., Zhang, H., Huang, J., & Zuo, X. (2022). Can gold and bitcoin hedge against the COVID-19 related news sentiment risk? New evidence from a NARDL approach. Resources Policy, 79, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103098
Akhtaruzzaman, M., Boubaker, S., Lucey, B. M., & Sensoy, A. (2021). Is gold a hedge or a safe-haven asset in the COVID–19 crisis? Economic Modelling, 102, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105588
Al-Awadhi, A. M., Alsaifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326
Apriyadi, M., Kusuma, D., Az-Zahra, S., & Siregar, B. (2022). REAKSI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA TERHADAP PERISTIWA PERANG RUSIA DAN UKRAINA. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 6(3), 420–435. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v6i3.2258
Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities? Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101249
Baig, A. S., Butt, H. A., Haroon, O., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2021). Deaths, panic, lockdowns and US equity markets: The case of COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 38, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101701
Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold. In The Financial Review (Vol. 45). http://www.merriam-webster.com/.
Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886–1898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.008
Cevik, E., Kirci Altinkeski, B., Cevik, E. I., & Dibooglu, S. (2022). Investor sentiments and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial Innovation, 8(69), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-022-00375-0
Cheema, M. A., Faff, R., & Szulczyk, K. R. (2022). The 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic: How safe are the safe haven assets? International Review of Financial Analysis, 83, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102316
Chemkha, R., BenSaïda, A., Ghorbel, A., & Tayachi, T. (2021). Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 82, 71–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.07.006
Choudhury, T., Kinateder, H., & Neupane, B. (2022). Gold, bonds, and epidemics: A safe haven study. Finance Research Letters, 48, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102978
Conlon, T., & McGee, R. (2020). Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the Covid-19 bear market. Finance Research Letters, 35, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101607
Diniz-Maganini, N., Diniz, E. H., & Rasheed, A. A. (2021). Bitcoin’s price efficiency and safe haven properties during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison. Research in International Business and Finance, 58, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101472
Dwita Mariana, C., Ekaputra, I. A., & Husodo, Z. A. (2021). Are Bitcoin and Ethereum safe-havens for stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic? Finance Research Letters, 38, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101798
Engle, R. (2002). Dynamic Conditional Correlation. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339–350. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618487
Guo, X., Lu, F., & Wei, Y. (2021). Capture the contagion network of bitcoin – Evidence from pre and mid COVID-19. Research in International Business and Finance, 58, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101484
Hartono, P., & Robiyanto, R. (2021). Can Cryptocurrency, Gold and Bonds Play a Role as a Safe Haven for the Indonesian Capital Market? Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.24843/JEKT.2021.v14.i01.p01
Hasan, Md. B., Hassan, M. K., Rashid, Md. M., & Alhenawi, Y. (2021). Are safe haven assets really safe during the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic? Global Finance Journal, 50, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100668
Huang, W., & Chang, M.-S. (2021). Gold and Government Bonds as Safe-Haven Assets Against Stock Market Turbulence in China. SAGE Open, 11(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244021990655
Ji, Q., Zhang, D., & Zhao, Y. (2020). Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 71, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101526
Kaczmarek, T., Będowska-Sójka, B., Grobelny, P., & Perez, K. (2022). False Safe Haven Assets: Evidence From the Target Volatility Strategy Based on Recurrent Neural Network. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101610
Kamaludin, K., Sundarasen, S., & Ibrahim, I. (2021). Covid-19, Dow Jones and equity market movement in ASEAN-5 countries: evidence from wavelet analyses. Heliyon, 7(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05851
Kliber, A., Marszałek, P., Musiałkowska, I., & Świerczyńska, K. (2019). Bitcoin: Safe haven, hedge or diversifier? Perception of bitcoin in the context of a country’s economic situation — A stochastic volatility approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 524, 246–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.145
Kristoufek, L. (2020). Grandpa, Grandpa, Tell Me the One About Bitcoin Being a Safe Haven: New Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic. Frontiers in Physics, 8(296), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.00296
Kumar, A. S., & Padakandla, S. R. (2022). Testing the safe-haven properties of gold and bitcoin in the backdrop of COVID-19: A wavelet quantile correlation approach. Finance Research Letters, 47, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102707
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974
Mokni, K., Youssef, M., & Ajmi, A. N. (2022). COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty: The first test on the hedging and safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101573
Ortmann, R., Pelster, M., & Wengerek, S. T. (2020). COVID-19 and investor behavior. Finance Research Letters, 37, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101717
Rashid, A., Bakry, W., & Al-Mohamad, S. (2023). Are cryptocurrencies a future safe haven for investors? The case of Bitcoin. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 36(2), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2140443
Ratner, M., & Chiu, C.-C. (Jason). (2013). Hedging stock sector risk with credit default swaps. International Review of Financial Analysis, 30, 18–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.05.001
Ritika, Himanshu, & Kishor, N. (2023). Modeling of factors affecting investment behavior during the pandemic: a grey-DEMATEL approach. Journal of Financial Services Marketing, 28(2), 222–235. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41264-022-00141-4
Robiyanto, R. (2019). Penggunaan Metode Orthogonal GARCH untuk Meramalkan Matriks Kovarians Return Indeks Harga Saham Sektoral Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 12(2), 30. https://doi.org/10.24843/JEKT.2019.v12.i02.p05
Robiyanto, R., Nugroho, B. A., Huruta, A. D., Frensidy, B., & Suyanto, S. (2021). Identifying the Role of Gold on Sustainable Investment in Indonesia: The DCC-GARCH Approach. Economies, 9(3), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030119
Salisu, A. A., Raheem, I. D., & Vo, X. V. (2021). Assessing the safe haven property of the gold market during COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101666
Shahzad, S. J. H., Bouri, E., Roubaud, D., Kristoufek, L., & Lucey, B. (2019). Is Bitcoin a better safe-haven investment than gold and commodities? International Review of Financial Analysis, 63, 322–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.01.002
Stensås, A., Nygaard, M. F., Kyaw, K., & Treepongkaruna, S. (2019). Can Bitcoin be a diversifier, hedge or safe haven tool? Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2019.1593072
Sun, Y., Natasha, V., & Tenggono, E. A. (2022). DID GOLD, BITCOIN AND FOREX AS SAFE HAVEN ASSET FOR SOUTH EAST ASIA INDEX DURING COVID 19. Journal of Applied Finance & Accounting, 9(2), 89–99. https://doi.org/10.21512/jafa.v9i2.9095
Urquhart, A., & Zhang, H. (2019). Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe haven for currencies? An intraday analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 63, 49–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.02.009
Wang, P., Liu, X., & Wu, S. (2022). Dynamic Linkage between Bitcoin and Traditional Financial Assets: A Comparative Analysis of Different Time Frequencies. Entropy, 24(11), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/e24111565
Wen, F., Tong, X., & Ren, X. (2022). Gold or Bitcoin, which is the safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic? International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102121
Widjaja, M., Gaby, & Havidz, S. A. H. (2023). Are gold and cryptocurrency a safe haven for stocks and bonds? Conventional vs Islamic markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. European Journal of Management and Business Economics. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJMBE-05-2022-0135
Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Demir, E. (2020). Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe. Finance Research Letters, 35, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101597
Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528
Zhu, X., Niu, Z., Zhang, H., Huang, J., & Zuo, X. (2022). Can gold and bitcoin hedge against the COVID-19 related news sentiment risk? New evidence from a NARDL approach. Resources Policy, 79, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103098
Published
2024-02-01
How to Cite
Wulan, A., Ma’mun, S., & Maksar, M. (2024). ANALISIS ASET SAFE-HAVEN UNTUK PASAR SAHAM DI INDONESIA : STUDI PADA EMAS DAN BITCOIN. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 8(1), 753-769. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v8i1.3737
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